Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     60.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  27.2  33.0  34.6  26.0  24.0  39.4  34.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  82.0  90.0  65.0  51.0  50.0  41.0  31.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  95.7  83.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  96.0  88.0  71.0  55.0  64.0  62.0  29.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  66.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  13.0  15.0  28.0  20.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        1.8%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       11.1%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        4.2%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        4.0%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%        4.0%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.9%        4.7%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        0.9%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%        4.0%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        0.7%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%        0.9%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 AL102025 251009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     60.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  27.2  33.0  34.6  26.0  24.0  39.4  34.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  66.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  13.0  15.0  28.0  20.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  N  F  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%