Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     61.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  37.2  33.7  30.9  23.1  30.4  35.9  35.6  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  90.0  62.0  49.0  48.0  41.0  33.0  28.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6 100.7  88.5  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  85.0  86.0  45.0  35.0   8.0  20.0  58.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  60.0  64.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  21.0  16.0  24.0  22.0  22.0  13.0  15.0  N VU  U VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.3%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       10.2%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        3.9%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.5%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        3.1%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%        5.6%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%        3.4%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.6%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        0.8%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 AL102025 251010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     61.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  37.2  33.7  30.9  23.1  30.4  35.9  35.6  N  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  60.0  64.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  21.0  16.0  24.0  22.0  22.0  13.0  15.0  N VF  F VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%