Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251010 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     62.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  30.1  23.8  20.6  24.4  35.1  35.1  38.2  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  60.0  49.0  50.0  47.0  39.0  31.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6  97.4  86.2  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  58.0  54.0  54.0  38.0  30.0  18.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  61.0  73.0  77.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  17.0  15.0   9.0  22.0  34.0  36.0  19.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       11.0%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        4.6%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.9%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%        6.2%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%        3.1%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        0.6%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        0.6%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 AL102025 251010 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     62.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  30.1  23.8  20.6  24.4  35.1  35.1  38.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  61.0  73.0  77.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  17.0  15.0   9.0  22.0  34.0  36.0  19.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%