Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     63.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  25.9  24.9  24.2  27.5  31.5  30.0  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  50.0  52.0  54.0  42.0  30.0  29.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 105.7  93.5  81.0  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  68.0  72.0  26.0  46.0  35.0 -11.0  18.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  62.0  70.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  25.0  30.0  26.0  30.0  33.0  22.0  14.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        6.0%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        3.0%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        1.2%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.2%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        0.4%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 AL102025 251010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     63.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  25.9  24.9  24.2  27.5  31.5  30.0  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  62.0  70.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  25.0  30.0  26.0  30.0  33.0  22.0  14.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%