Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     63.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  27.4  26.3  24.8  31.6  30.3  29.2  18.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  51.0  52.0  50.0  41.0  31.0  36.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 119.3 114.6  97.4  86.2  81.0  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  33.0   9.0  19.0  10.0  17.0  -1.0  17.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  66.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  32.0  23.0  26.0  32.0  30.0  18.0  16.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.5%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%       10.2%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        3.9%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.4%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.4%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        4.8%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        1.2%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL102025 251010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     63.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  27.4  26.3  24.8  31.6  30.3  29.2  18.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  66.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  32.0  23.0  26.0  32.0  30.0  18.0  16.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%