Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     63.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  22.4  21.4  29.6  29.8  26.9  24.1  13.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  53.0  48.0  42.0  33.0  33.0  31.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 119.3 114.6 103.6  91.6  79.3  77.7  77.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  56.0  45.0  44.0  -4.0   0.0  50.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  70.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  19.0  30.0  23.0  19.0  23.0  14.0   9.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.5%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       13.3%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        5.5%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        4.9%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.8%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        6.1%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        1.5%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        1.3%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.5%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        1.0%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 AL102025 251011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     63.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  22.4  21.4  29.6  29.8  26.9  24.1  13.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  70.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  19.0  30.0  23.0  19.0  23.0  14.0   9.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%