Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102025 251011 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.50 63.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 23.9 33.4 34.8 32.3 32.6 22.7 26.9 N N U U U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 45.0 41.0 36.0 32.0 28.0 23.0 25.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 114.3 105.1 98.6 92.4 79.4 68.0 68.0 72.7 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 59.0 50.0 30.0 35.0 35.0 38.0 -62.0 N N N N N N N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 64.0 69.0 74.0 79.0 82.0 78.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 25.0 35.0 32.0 27.0 32.0 19.0 15.0 15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.7% 5.9% 6.3% 25kt / 24h 7.8% 15.0% 11.4% 30kt / 24h 4.5% 7.2% 5.9% 35kt / 24h 3.7% 6.9% 5.3% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 5.9% 3.3% 45kt / 36h 1.7% 6.5% 4.1% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 1.8% 1.3% 55kt / 48h 1.7% 0.9% 1.3% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.00 AL102025 251011 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.50 63.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 23.9 33.4 34.8 32.3 32.6 22.7 26.9 N N F F N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 64.0 69.0 74.0 79.0 82.0 78.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 25.0 35.0 32.0 27.0 32.0 19.0 15.0 15.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%