Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112025 251010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.40     33.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  19.5  20.0  19.6  21.2  32.7  32.5  45.1  F  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.6  15.0  10.6   9.2   3.9   2.4   1.0   2.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0   4.0   8.0 -15.0  78.0  41.0  -5.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  52.0  56.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0   2.0  25.0  54.0  96.0  F  N  F  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 17.16

 AL112025 251010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.40     33.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.