Rapid Intensification Guidance AL112025 251010 06UTC Storm Located at : 45.00 32.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 21.5 22.2 24.2 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 15.0 12.6 9.2 7.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 8.0 -7.0 28.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 51.0 57.0 58.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 16.58 AL112025 251010 06UTC Storm Located at : 45.00 32.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.