Rapid Intensification Guidance AL112025 251010 12UTC Storm Located at : 45.70 31.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.8 22.0 23.9 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 12.6 10.8 7.7 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -7.0 9.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 56.0 57.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 2.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 N N N U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 16.00 AL112025 251010 12UTC Storm Located at : 45.70 31.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.