Rapid Intensification Guidance AL112025 251010 18UTC Storm Located at : 46.80 30.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.8 22.6 22.4 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 9.2 7.7 5.2 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 12.0 62.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 1.0 -2.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 F N N VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 14.54 AL112025 251010 18UTC Storm Located at : 46.80 30.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.