Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122025 251013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  27.1  26.6  20.7  15.6  21.6  25.3  27.5  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  29.0  38.0  40.0  50.0  46.0  34.0  22.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5 104.4 106.5 108.6 108.6 106.5 106.5 102.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0 125.0 102.0  37.0  37.0  -4.0  -5.0 -20.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  50.0  51.0  47.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -6.0  -4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -7.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.6%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        5.9%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.0%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       10.1%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        2.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h       15.3%        2.8%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        2.5%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        4.4%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 AL122025 251013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  27.1  26.6  20.7  15.6  21.6  25.3  27.5  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  50.0  51.0  47.0  52.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -6.0  -4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -7.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%