Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122025 251014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     42.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  16.1  12.3  15.6  19.4  16.5  10.2   9.1  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  45.0  56.0  53.0  45.0  18.0  12.0   8.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.4  92.4  92.4  92.4  92.4  86.6  79.4  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  34.0  30.0  48.0   8.0  34.0  22.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        1.9%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       11.0%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%        5.2%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        4.3%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%        4.3%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       10.6%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.0%        3.5%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       23.4%        2.6%       13.0%
 70kt / 48h       10.2%        2.2%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%        4.0%        4.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.42

 AL122025 251014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     42.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.