Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122025 251014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     43.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  16.1  19.3  22.6  22.2  17.7  11.1  14.2  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  54.0  47.0  45.0  26.0  12.0   7.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.4  92.4  92.4  92.4  88.5  81.2  69.6  56.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  13.0   4.0   0.0  37.0   7.0  -6.0 -21.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        2.7%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%        9.0%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        4.2%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        3.4%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        3.2%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        7.5%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        2.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h       14.7%        1.5%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%        1.3%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        1.8%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.42

 AL122025 251014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     43.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.