Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122025 251014 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     44.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  23.4  22.9  23.7  18.9  13.9  11.8  12.2  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  52.0  42.0  35.0  18.0  10.0   9.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.4  94.4  92.4  92.4  86.6  77.7  63.6  59.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0 -22.0 -16.0  18.0 -11.0   0.0 -16.0 -28.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  50.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0 -10.0  -1.0 -14.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  F  N VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.4%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        4.3%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        1.7%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        1.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        1.2%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        3.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        0.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.9%        0.8%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        0.6%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        1.2%        1.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 AL122025 251014 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     44.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.