Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122025 251014 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 45.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.90 F TC SIZE [%] 48.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 21.7 17.2 16.1 12.9 9.3 11.1 13.0 N N F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 39.0 35.0 30.0 20.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.4 109.4 107.4 103.5 98.0 84.6 77.2 73.0 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 -28.0 12.0 29.0 5.0 11.0 -8.0 -22.0 U VU U N U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 51.0 50.0 51.0 53.0 49.0 48.0 44.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -5.0 -7.0 -7.0 0.0 N N N N F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 9.7% 0.5% 5.1% 70kt / 48h 3.3% 0.4% 1.8% 65kt / 72h 4.1% 1.1% 2.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 AL122025 251014 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 45.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.