Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122025 251015 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 45.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 43.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 17.2 17.3 16.8 13.3 9.1 8.0 8.0 N F F F F F VF VF Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 40.0 27.0 18.0 9.0 10.0 1.0 1.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.4 107.4 105.5 101.6 92.7 77.2 67.9 67.9 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 5.0 25.0 2.0 -2.0 -5.0 -26.0 -26.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 49.0 47.0 47.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -8.0 0.0 -11.0 0.0 0.0 N N N F N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.9% 1.7% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.2% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 14.9% 5.9% 10.4% 70kt / 48h 5.9% 1.0% 3.4% 65kt / 72h 3.1% 2.1% 2.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.36 AL122025 251015 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 45.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.