Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122025 251015 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 45.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.10 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.8 17.7 15.8 14.0 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 44.0 29.0 18.0 19.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.4 105.5 101.6 96.2 81.5 81.5 81.5 81.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 3.0 4.0 2.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -8.0 -9.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 5.8% 3.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 2.6% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 1.4% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.8% 10.1% 5.5% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 3.8% 2.3% 55kt / 48h 19.4% 8.5% 13.9% 70kt / 48h 8.5% 2.7% 5.6% 65kt / 72h 3.9% 4.6% 4.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.22 AL122025 251015 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 45.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.