Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122025 251015 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     44.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  16.1  16.2  13.7  13.7  13.7  13.7  13.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  18.0  17.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5 101.6  96.2  92.7  92.7  92.7  92.7  92.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -2.0  -1.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  47.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -10.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        5.5%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h       17.9%        7.3%       12.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        1.4%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        3.0%        3.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.04

 AL122025 251015 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     44.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.