Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122025 251015 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  13.8  13.8  13.8  13.8  13.8  13.8  13.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 101.2 101.2 101.2 101.2 101.2 101.2 101.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h       19.4%        8.2%       13.8%
 70kt / 48h        8.2%        1.3%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        9.7%        4.0%        6.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.94

 AL122025 251015 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.