Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     71.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.9  27.0  30.5  27.5  31.1  24.8  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0 101.0 102.0  93.0  76.0  68.0  79.0  89.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  74.0  84.0  93.0 112.0  94.0 122.0 118.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  78.0  70.0  67.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   8.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%        9.6%       11.2%
 25kt / 24h       33.9%       43.6%       38.7%
 30kt / 24h       22.1%       23.5%       22.8%
 35kt / 24h       17.9%       23.5%       20.7%
 40kt / 24h       17.9%       23.5%       20.7%
 45kt / 36h       33.0%       39.3%       36.1%
 55kt / 36h       19.7%       16.0%       17.9%
 55kt / 48h       43.4%       20.5%       32.0%
 70kt / 48h       23.7%       11.1%       17.4%
 65kt / 72h       57.7%       31.3%       44.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 AL132025 251021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     71.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.9  27.0  30.5  27.5  31.1  24.8  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  78.0  70.0  67.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   8.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%