Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     72.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  27.2  29.6  27.2  26.4  24.7  22.5  28.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  84.0  79.0  73.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  98.0 103.0 106.0  85.0 148.0 130.0  77.0  N  F  F  F  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  75.0  68.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0  -3.0   3.0   7.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        3.9%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       24.5%       20.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       10.3%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%       10.3%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       10.3%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h       16.6%       17.8%       17.2%
 55kt / 36h        7.4%        4.8%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h       31.5%       12.0%       21.8%
 70kt / 48h       14.2%        4.7%        9.4%
 65kt / 72h       51.9%       18.8%       35.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 AL132025 251021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     72.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  27.2  29.6  27.2  26.4  24.7  22.5  28.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  75.0  68.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0  -3.0   3.0   7.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%