Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251022 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     73.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.5  27.6  25.5  30.3  23.3  21.7  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  69.0  74.0  82.0 102.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  86.0 117.0 104.0 121.0 141.0 128.0 100.0  N  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  79.0  81.0  79.0  72.0  67.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   7.0   2.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        2.4%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        9.7%       18.3%       14.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%        6.9%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%        6.9%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.1%        6.9%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h       10.6%       11.2%       10.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%        2.5%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h       25.0%        9.4%       17.2%
 70kt / 48h        9.8%        2.9%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h       59.2%       16.9%       38.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 AL132025 251022 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     73.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.5  27.6  25.5  30.3  23.3  21.7  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  79.0  81.0  79.0  72.0  67.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   7.0   2.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%