Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     73.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  25.6  23.6  28.0  26.1  16.0  21.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 104.0  78.0  92.0 151.0 123.0 135.0 128.0  N  F  N  F VF  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  76.0  72.0  68.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   2.0   8.0   9.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        3.4%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       15.5%       28.4%       21.9%
 30kt / 24h        7.2%       14.2%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       14.0%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.4%       12.4%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h       14.0%       22.1%       18.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%        6.9%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h       28.7%       20.8%       24.8%
 70kt / 48h       11.9%        8.0%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h       55.9%       27.0%       41.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 AL132025 251022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     73.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  25.6  23.6  28.0  26.1  16.0  21.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  76.0  72.0  68.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   2.0   8.0   9.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%