Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     73.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  29.3  26.6  27.9  23.6  16.1  16.5  22.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  73.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  89.0  82.0 106.0 134.0 115.0 132.0  98.0  F  F  N  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  83.0  80.0  75.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.1%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h       17.7%       30.0%       23.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.2%       16.3%       11.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%       16.3%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       12.7%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h       13.7%       25.7%       19.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%        9.0%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       25.5%       23.3%       24.4%
 70kt / 48h       10.0%        9.6%        9.8%
 65kt / 72h       54.3%       36.0%       45.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 AL132025 251022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     73.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  29.3  26.6  27.9  23.6  16.1  16.5  22.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  83.0  80.0  75.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%