Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251022 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     74.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  31.5  29.8  27.3  16.0  17.5  19.1  25.5  U  U  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  84.0 113.0 128.0  97.0  97.0 133.0 121.0  F  N  F  F  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  81.0  81.0  78.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0   7.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.9%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       11.7%       19.9%       15.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%        8.6%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        8.3%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        7.2%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h       13.6%       19.5%       16.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%        5.9%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h       27.4%       18.8%       23.1%
 70kt / 48h       11.2%        6.9%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h       49.6%       25.2%       37.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 AL132025 251022 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     74.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  31.5  29.8  27.3  16.0  17.5  19.1  25.5  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  81.0  81.0  78.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0   7.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%