Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     74.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  28.3  25.3  19.4  14.6  18.9  24.4  29.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  74.0  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 121.0 154.0 135.0 103.0 108.0 100.0 109.0  N  F VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  76.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  61.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   8.0   7.0   3.0   2.0  -1.0   3.0  -5.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       22.3%       17.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%        9.5%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        9.1%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        9.1%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h       18.3%       22.2%       20.3%
 55kt / 36h        6.7%        6.9%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h       36.8%       21.3%       29.1%
 70kt / 48h       18.0%        7.9%       13.0%
 65kt / 72h       57.6%       24.6%       41.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL132025 251023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     74.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  28.3  25.3  19.4  14.6  18.9  24.4  29.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  76.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  61.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   8.0   7.0   3.0   2.0  -1.0   3.0  -5.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%