Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     74.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  26.1  22.1  16.3  22.7  14.8  28.8  29.1  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  72.0  87.0 116.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0 108.0 109.0  97.0 108.0 122.0 125.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   6.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.8%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       12.1%       21.4%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%        9.1%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        9.1%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        9.1%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h       14.9%       16.3%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%        4.5%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h       38.2%       18.0%       28.1%
 70kt / 48h       19.2%        6.4%       12.8%
 65kt / 72h       59.8%       22.1%       40.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL132025 251023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     74.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  26.1  22.1  16.3  22.7  14.8  28.8  29.1  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   6.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%