Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251023 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     75.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  28.4  29.1  27.3  16.8  26.9  24.0  29.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  87.0 130.0 146.0 129.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  76.0  81.0  92.0 134.0 136.0  77.0  63.0  N  N  N  F VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.0%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        9.3%       19.8%       14.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        8.3%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        7.7%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        6.7%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h       12.5%       24.3%       18.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%        8.0%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h       44.2%       20.8%       32.5%
 70kt / 48h       23.9%        9.5%       16.7%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       36.3%       49.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 AL132025 251023 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     75.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  28.4  29.1  27.3  16.8  26.9  24.0  29.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%