Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  30.5  24.1  20.9  26.2  24.8  25.5  23.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  76.0  91.0  97.0 134.0 145.0 129.0 105.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  84.0  85.0  97.0 137.0  88.0  75.0  56.0  N  N  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h       13.2%       24.8%       19.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       11.4%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       10.6%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        9.1%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h       18.1%       27.6%       22.9%
 55kt / 36h        7.8%        9.6%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       49.6%       23.2%       36.4%
 70kt / 48h       25.5%       11.2%       18.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       39.7%       51.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL132025 251024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  30.5  24.1  20.9  26.2  24.8  25.5  23.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%