Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     75.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  22.0  18.4  20.2  20.5  24.5  24.4  24.4  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  67.0  73.0  83.0 115.0 137.0 123.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  F VF  F  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  56.0  89.0 114.0  96.0  61.0  67.0  30.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  67.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.3%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h       14.7%       29.2%       22.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       14.8%       10.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%       14.1%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       12.8%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h       19.9%       31.7%       25.8%
 55kt / 36h        8.9%       12.6%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       48.1%       27.1%       37.6%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       13.3%       19.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       39.1%       50.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 AL132025 251024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     75.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  22.0  18.4  20.2  20.5  24.5  24.4  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  67.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%