Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     74.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  17.1  19.1  21.4  19.9  20.7  18.8  23.3  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  73.0  68.0  66.0  76.0 114.0 128.0 121.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  54.0 115.0 111.0  68.0  95.0  12.0  33.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.7%       21.3%       20.0%
 25kt / 24h       57.1%       72.4%       64.7%
 30kt / 24h       37.3%       65.8%       51.6%
 35kt / 24h       27.9%       65.8%       46.8%
 40kt / 24h       19.7%       62.8%       41.3%
 45kt / 36h       44.2%       70.3%       57.3%
 55kt / 36h       27.5%       52.3%       39.9%
 55kt / 48h       47.6%       55.9%       51.7%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       39.2%       32.1%
 65kt / 72h       58.6%       57.9%       58.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 AL132025 251024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     74.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  17.1  19.1  21.4  19.9  20.7  18.8  23.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%