Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     74.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  22.3  25.8  22.4  23.4  22.7  24.6  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  71.0  81.0  94.0 130.0 135.0 117.0 100.0  N  N  N  F VF VF  F  F
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  82.0  78.0  84.0  68.0  75.0  35.0  27.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   8.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.3%       29.3%       34.3%
 25kt / 24h       64.3%       73.6%       69.0%
 30kt / 24h       52.5%       67.6%       60.1%
 35kt / 24h       41.4%       67.6%       54.5%
 40kt / 24h       35.9%       67.6%       51.8%
 45kt / 36h       53.9%       70.4%       62.2%
 55kt / 36h       35.4%       52.3%       43.9%
 55kt / 48h       41.8%       54.7%       48.2%
 70kt / 48h       26.0%       39.1%       32.5%
 65kt / 72h       62.3%       51.1%       56.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 AL132025 251025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     74.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  22.3  25.8  22.4  23.4  22.7  24.6  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   8.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%