Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251025 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 74.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 57.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 22.9 20.4 20.6 24.2 21.3 23.7 31.8 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 73.0 87.0 99.0 118.0 137.0 126.0 111.0 115.0 N N F F VF F F F Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 91.0 75.0 64.0 70.0 75.0 4.0 60.0 48.0 F N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 69.0 67.0 67.0 65.0 65.0 62.0 60.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 8.0 3.0 3.0 8.0 4.0 3.0 6.0 N U N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 31.3% 21.2% 26.2% 25kt / 24h 59.8% 67.6% 63.7% 30kt / 24h 49.0% 60.5% 54.8% 35kt / 24h 43.2% 60.5% 51.9% 40kt / 24h 43.2% 60.5% 51.9% 45kt / 36h 54.9% 56.1% 55.5% 55kt / 36h 35.1% 33.0% 34.0% 55kt / 48h 44.0% 43.5% 43.8% 70kt / 48h 26.6% 21.9% 24.3% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 33.8% 48.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.92 AL132025 251025 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 74.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 22.9 20.4 20.6 24.2 21.3 23.7 31.8 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 69.0 67.0 67.0 65.0 65.0 62.0 60.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 8.0 3.0 3.0 8.0 4.0 3.0 6.0 N F N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%