Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     75.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  22.3  19.1  20.7  23.7  23.4  25.5  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  90.0 114.0 130.0 132.0 120.0 119.0 115.0  N  F  F VF VF  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  73.0  43.0  64.0  80.0  10.0  44.0  41.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.1%       16.3%       17.2%
 25kt / 24h       56.4%       65.8%       61.1%
 30kt / 24h       40.5%       58.3%       49.4%
 35kt / 24h       26.0%       58.3%       42.1%
 40kt / 24h       24.9%       56.0%       40.4%
 45kt / 36h       49.0%       52.5%       50.8%
 55kt / 36h       30.4%       29.7%       30.0%
 55kt / 48h       49.2%       41.0%       45.1%
 70kt / 48h       25.9%       17.8%       21.9%
 65kt / 72h       61.8%       28.6%       45.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 AL132025 251025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     75.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  22.3  19.1  20.7  23.7  23.4  25.5  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%