Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     75.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  17.8  21.8  24.3  22.5  24.6  23.9  28.6  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0 106.0 126.0 135.0 126.0 114.0 113.0 108.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  27.0  76.0  75.0  29.0  43.0  15.0  50.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   7.0   6.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       77.0%       55.9%       66.5%
 25kt / 24h       88.6%       88.0%       88.3%
 30kt / 24h       88.6%       88.0%       88.3%
 35kt / 24h       85.4%       88.0%       86.7%
 40kt / 24h       81.8%       87.6%       84.7%
 45kt / 36h       76.9%       71.9%       74.4%
 55kt / 36h       58.3%       55.1%       56.7%
 55kt / 48h       47.0%       54.9%       51.0%
 70kt / 48h       26.6%       27.5%       27.1%
 65kt / 72h       47.9%       29.2%       38.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 AL132025 251025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     75.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  17.8  21.8  24.3  22.5  24.6  23.9  28.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   7.0   6.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%