Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     75.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  24.7  24.9  22.6  22.7  26.4  28.5  34.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 129.0 132.0 126.0 114.0 108.0 113.0  96.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  74.0  98.0  44.0  55.0  38.0  49.0  25.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0   8.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   7.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       77.0%       42.1%       59.6%
 25kt / 24h       79.5%       71.7%       75.6%
 30kt / 24h       79.5%       69.2%       74.4%
 35kt / 24h       69.2%       69.2%       69.2%
 40kt / 24h       67.4%       66.4%       66.9%
 45kt / 36h       89.1%       57.3%       73.2%
 55kt / 36h       49.1%       37.7%       43.4%
 55kt / 48h       41.8%       24.8%       33.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 AL132025 251026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     75.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  24.7  24.9  22.6  22.7  26.4  28.5  34.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0   8.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   7.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%