Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251026 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     76.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  22.7  20.6  20.4  23.1  26.4  31.0  27.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 123.0 124.0 123.0 110.0 109.0 110.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  74.0  48.0  68.0  57.0 -37.0  54.0  31.0  F  N  N  N  N VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  65.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0   3.0   7.0   3.0   7.0  10.0   6.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       70.8%       30.9%       50.8%
 25kt / 24h       65.3%       52.2%       58.8%
 30kt / 24h       62.2%       47.0%       54.6%
 35kt / 24h       48.8%       47.0%       47.9%
 40kt / 24h       46.2%       38.2%       42.2%
 45kt / 36h       97.9%       48.0%       73.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 AL132025 251026 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     76.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  22.7  20.6  20.4  23.1  26.4  31.0  27.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  65.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0   3.0   7.0   3.0   7.0  10.0   6.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%