Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     76.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  24.1  23.6  21.6  24.3  27.5  28.9  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  128.0 125.0 118.0 110.0 102.0 108.0  87.0  63.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  39.0  49.0  62.0  35.0  49.0  70.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  65.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   6.0   5.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.9%       16.7%       39.3%
 25kt / 24h       44.1%       26.3%       35.2%
 30kt / 24h       38.0%       20.4%       29.2%
 35kt / 24h       25.2%       18.9%       22.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 AL132025 251026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     76.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  24.1  23.6  21.6  24.3  27.5  28.9  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  65.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   6.0   5.0   4.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%