Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     76.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  21.8  22.8  24.3  25.8  27.0  27.9  25.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  122.0 110.0 104.0  99.0  96.0 100.0  79.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  51.0  71.0  59.0   2.0  56.0  61.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  59.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.5%       11.8%       23.6%
 25kt / 24h       31.0%       20.0%       25.5%
 30kt / 24h       23.3%       15.4%       19.4%
 35kt / 24h       14.5%       13.7%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 AL132025 251026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     76.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  21.8  22.8  24.3  25.8  27.0  27.9  25.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  59.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%