Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     77.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  21.9  23.1  23.3  26.7  28.7  28.0  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0 107.0 103.0  98.0 101.0  95.0  61.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  34.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  87.0  66.0  53.0  46.0  69.0  12.0  33.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  66.0  52.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.9%        4.4%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.2%        7.6%       10.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.9%        5.1%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 AL132025 251027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     77.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  21.9  23.1  23.3  26.7  28.7  28.0  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  66.0  52.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%