Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251027 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     77.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  24.2  24.7  24.9  25.8  32.2  29.3  28.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  107.0 101.0  98.0  98.0 102.0  77.0  65.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  25.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  84.0  63.0  18.0  78.0  48.0  26.0  12.0  F  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  59.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0   4.0   7.0   5.0   8.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.8%        7.2%       17.5%
 25kt / 24h       17.5%        9.7%       13.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 AL132025 251027 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     77.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  24.2  24.7  24.9  25.8  32.2  29.3  28.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  59.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0   4.0   7.0   5.0   8.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.5%        2.2%