Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     78.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  30.6  32.4  33.9  32.6  33.5  33.8  27.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0  96.0  98.0 101.0  93.0  61.0  75.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  19.6   2.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  45.0  23.0  51.0  93.0  49.0  49.0  56.0  N  N  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  66.0  57.0  52.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.5%        0.0%       15.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 AL132025 251027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     78.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  30.6  32.4  33.9  32.6  33.5  33.8  27.9  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  66.0  57.0  52.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.5%        3.2%