Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251027 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     78.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  29.5  30.6  28.3  32.2  29.5  29.7  27.6  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  94.0 101.0 103.0  86.0  61.0  61.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0   5.1 -15.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  56.0  44.0  53.0  61.0  57.0  26.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  63.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   8.0  11.0   3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 AL132025 251027 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     78.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  29.5  30.6  28.3  32.2  29.5  29.7  27.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  63.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   8.0  11.0   3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.4%        3.2%