Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251028 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     78.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  23.9  22.8  26.3  27.8  31.6  29.1  43.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  92.0  99.0  97.0  70.0  73.0  64.0  25.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  14.3  -3.5 -30.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  37.0  59.0  57.0  73.0  44.0  34.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  69.0  66.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   8.0   5.0   0.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 AL132025 251028 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     78.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  23.9  22.8  26.3  27.8  31.6  29.1  43.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  69.0  66.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   8.0   5.0   0.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.1%        2.5%