Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251028 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 78.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 150. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 150.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 96.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 23.1 28.2 29.3 26.8 26.5 33.4 47.3 N N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 98.0 102.0 97.0 88.0 58.0 72.0 60.0 14.0 F F F F N N N U Potential [kt] 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 5.1 -15.2 -45.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 76.0 69.0 96.0 62.0 94.0 44.0 49.0 87.0 N N F N F N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 66.0 61.0 52.0 50.0 47.0 45.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 6.0 4.0 7.0 6.0 -1.0 12.0 30.0 U N N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.14 AL132025 251028 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 78.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 150. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 150.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 23.1 28.2 29.3 26.8 26.5 33.4 47.3 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 66.0 61.0 52.0 50.0 47.0 45.0 N N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 6.0 4.0 7.0 6.0 -1.0 12.0 30.0 F N N N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 7.9% 4.0%