Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251028 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 78.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 155. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 155.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 94.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 30.0 30.2 25.3 27.8 28.1 43.2 49.1 N N N N N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 102.0 97.0 81.0 60.0 80.0 58.0 21.0 15.0 F F N N N N U U Potential [kt] 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 4.6 -14.5 -41.4 -58.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 94.0 78.0 39.0 80.0 62.0 23.0 101.0 130.0 F N N N N U F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 65.0 61.0 53.0 50.0 46.0 46.0 41.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 5.0 11.0 7.0 6.0 3.0 41.0 90.0 N N U N N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.10 AL132025 251028 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 78.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 155. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 155.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 30.0 30.2 25.3 27.8 28.1 43.2 49.1 N N N N N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 65.0 61.0 53.0 50.0 46.0 46.0 41.0 N N N F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 5.0 11.0 7.0 6.0 3.0 41.0 90.0 N N F N N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 9.0% 4.5%