Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251028 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 77.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 145. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 145.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 96.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 85.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.8 32.2 27.0 27.6 33.0 32.0 50.7 63.7 U U N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 95.0 81.0 58.0 59.0 85.0 41.0 16.0 1.0 F N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.3 10.1 -17.3 -44.5 -53.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 54.0 75.0 48.0 19.0 59.0 109.0 102.0 F N N N U N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 60.0 54.0 53.0 53.0 54.0 53.0 48.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 13.0 13.0 10.0 9.0 17.0 40.0 163.0 N U U U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.84 AL132025 251028 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 77.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 145. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 145.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.8 32.2 27.0 27.6 33.0 32.0 50.7 63.7 F N N N F N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 60.0 54.0 53.0 53.0 54.0 53.0 48.0 N N F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 13.0 13.0 10.0 9.0 17.0 40.0 163.0 N F F F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 18.6% 9.3%