Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251029 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 77.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -45.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.0 28.7 25.6 30.7 32.0 45.3 61.1 70.6 U N N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 85.0 60.0 60.0 84.0 53.0 23.0 10.0 0.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 55.0 55.0 52.0 47.3 30.5 -2.0 -16.2 -43.8 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 77.0 62.0 35.0 36.0 104.0 98.0 92.0 N N N N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 59.0 58.0 56.0 56.0 57.0 50.0 43.0 N U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 16.0 13.0 11.0 14.0 35.0 51.0 213.0 VU U U U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.68 AL132025 251029 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 77.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -45.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.0 28.7 25.6 30.7 32.0 45.3 61.1 70.6 F N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 59.0 58.0 56.0 56.0 57.0 50.0 43.0 N F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 16.0 13.0 11.0 14.0 35.0 51.0 213.0 VF F F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 42.9% 21.4%