Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251029 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 76.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 77.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 25.3 29.0 33.8 37.1 56.1 64.0 62.4 N N N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 61.0 83.0 77.0 35.0 22.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 55.0 54.3 47.3 38.6 9.6 -14.1 -30.8 -68.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 58.0 48.0 55.0 100.0 106.0 121.0 145.0 N N N N F F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 59.0 59.0 58.0 58.0 56.0 47.0 47.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 18.0 18.0 19.0 24.0 46.0 127.0 209.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.42 AL132025 251029 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 76.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -35.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 25.3 29.0 33.8 37.1 56.1 64.0 62.4 N N N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 59.0 59.0 58.0 58.0 56.0 47.0 47.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 18.0 18.0 19.0 24.0 46.0 127.0 209.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 38.6% 19.3%